Retail Sales Rise Alongside Oil

U.S. retail sales revealed the expected September bounce after tiny revisions in still-weak July and August readings, though lean core retail sales slightly trimmed analysts gross domestic product (GDP) prospects.

A resumed oil price climb allowed a 2.4% surge in gas station sales, alongside a 1.1% auto bounce that chased a 4.4% September vehicle sales rise, and a 1.4% building material sales increase after declines in the prior two months that were trimmed with today’s report.

Analysts with Action Economics still expect a Q3 GDP growth clip of 2.5% with a 2.7% pace for real consumption, following Q2 growth of 1.4% for real GDP and 4.3% for real consumption. AE writes that they still expect 2.5% GDP growth for Q4 as well, but “lowered our consumption growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.9%. We assume a 0.6% September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rise in nominal terms with a 0.2% ‘real’ rise, alongside a 0.3% PCE chain price rise that chases our 0.4% CPI estimate.”

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